BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 4 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering this is a free card and that I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I won my very first seat into it a few weeks back and I will attempt to receive my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k decoration, and then I will probably have a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really are no cash game locks this week for me but I moved with Yana because I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I enjoy the ground she brings to the table. I also think she wins the battle and I think she will be the fighter going for takedowns. I don’t understand how high her ceiling is but in cash games it does not really matter too much since we do not need to hit 1st place in a double-up. I’d expect about 10x from Yana at a choice win and I’ll take that day in my cash games.
GPP play of this week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights tend to score highly because there are a great deal of scrambles and all the grappling advances really add up. I expect this to be a really fun fight, but it should be Smolka that is the one going for the takedowns. I am always trying to find no less than 10x from my fighters and also at $8.3k I’d be shocked if Smolka did not get that with a win. The lowest he has ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he’s scored 162 vs Nguyen and he has a 61-point reduction to Elliott that’s more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP drama here and when he wins I would expect near 100 DK points.
Underdog drama of this week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a fight I hope to stay standing, I’ve quite a bit of curiosity in this fight. I believe it will be an action-packed struggle and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is likewise the mid-range struggle of the week, so that I feel a KO from guy would have a fantastic opportunity to set them on the perfect lineup. I like it even more because I am choosing the underdog to acquire the knockout and that I anticipate Millender to be the greater owned fighter. I will have this fight in more than half my lineups, but I shall probably have at least double the possession on dos Santos over Millender. I believe it’s a much better GPP struggle than it is for cash games, but I think dos Santos is in play for money since he is an underdog and that I have him winning. I don’t feel confident in several underdogs this week, however I’ll have a good amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will need a finish at that salary and I really don’t see that occurring. If he wins a definite 30-27 conclusion, he then probably scores mid 70’s and at his price tag which will not win anyone a GPP. I don’t think he moves for takedowns in this matchup and I believe he uses his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Even if he can go for takedowns then I do not see him submitting Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO out of him to pay off that wages and I am not inclined to take this risk with my cash. That’s why he’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 61-37 for +209.69 (+$20,969) because May 19th on Premium Plays)

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