This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with two title struggles in Toronto, Canada. We are back to having PPV sized contests on DraftKings this week and there are some solid GPPs to chase this week. The most important GPP is a $10 entrance using $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favorite competitions to chase so I will be taking some shots in that. Aside from that, I’ll stick to my 3-entry maximum & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good quantity of play in cash games. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the simplest money game punt of all time in $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Conclusion is currently -195 and if we are getting 5-rounds from JJ with all the striking volume she puts out then we have a solid flooring there and it doesn’t matter if she wins or loses. At that cost she allows you to cover up for a few heavy favorites and when we can get 4 other spots to win with a ~40-point reduction from JJ in our lineup then we’ll be sitting quite pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP drama of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Does Not Go To Conclusion is currently lined at -495 for this fight. The most probable outcome is that someone in this fight gets knocked out within 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes in least one 10-point knock down. If this can be in the 1st round, then you are currently at 100-points even if it’s merely the 1st punch/kick of the night. At $8.8k that is more than enough to offer you a chance at 1st place at a GPP. Thiago is the favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so he can’t have a lot of time at the match left. I believe we function together with the favorite here and throw him into our GPP lineups and wait for the fireworks.
Underdog drama of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of the week due to his wrestling/grappling possible. I think he’s a live underdog here. Lopez dropped his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is really what I’d be worried about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of the two but he’s never knocked anybody out, so I believe we have a good floor here at $7.3k even if this fight does stay standing since I do not see Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is probably the better wrestler of both though and I believe he lands multiple takedowns in this battle and may win a choice using a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns each 15-minutes at a 57 percent accuracy, and if he is getting pieced up on the feet I’m sure he is going to be going for much more than that here. At $7.3k I think Lopez makes for a solid play in most formats and that I believe he gets a split decision win here as the road underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a couple of fighters this week , but the person I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I do not think she could win, since she for sure can, and I believe she does. However, I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I believe we’d require a complete from her in this struggle to receive 10x that wages and I believe that’s very unlikely to take place. Or, she’ll need FightMetric to count all her screams as important strikes. The most Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight up to now in her profession is 83 DK points which was against Irene Aldana who sets a much higher pace than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here afterward that still wouldn’t be enough here to place her in the winning lineup at her 8.7k price tag. I think if you’re making 20 or less lineups this Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and when she gets a win it should not hurt much.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and also give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
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