This weekend we’ve got an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these ancient cards so I can wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and then go out and revel in the rest of the afternoon when the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will occur in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters producing their UFC debut. For this reason, I believe we should have a large edge this week if we put in the work. Most casual players will not be doing research on those titles they have never heard and will only be throwing lineups seeking to get lucky and hit a big score. I will be pursuing the large $15k top prize in the 8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, largely H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at these big prizes. Here are a few plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It’s an arduous card this Sunday and I think we will see a good deal of people making mistakes in cash games. Whenever I think I can guarantee a total 100+ points in a struggle, I love to stack it into my money games and lock in those points. I think this fight is going to be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I believe we could observe numerous knockdowns as well that can help, but I believe we easily get over 100+ points combined with both of these guys. Let’s let everybody else make the mistakes and we could lock in a 100+ points and a win, and then we only have to locate another 3 wins we’re confident in.
GPP play of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe that this matchup was set up to get Bermudez a win. He has a very slick submission game and if this fight goes to the floor I presume he will pick up advance points fast and locate a submission. Grant has had problems with entry defense in his career and even when he’s winning the toes, he shoots in for takedowns every fight. I think if Manny can not get the takedown himself, then Grant will eventually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I think we could observe a 1st round submission here which should easily get the 10x+ we are searching for at his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog drama of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this fight he’ll easily pay off this price . He’s got 100-point upside and using a 7.5k salary that will surely place him on the winning lineup if he can arrive. Anthony Smith continues to be pumped more instances than Shogun and has fought considerably worse rivalry. I would not be surprised if Shogun can get a KO here against Smith, who is carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down from the past few years but I believe that he still has enough in the tank to possibly pull off an upset victory here. I do want exposure to both men in GPPs, but I think you need some exposure to Rua if you’re making numerous lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my own picks being correct and that I will hit the right combo. It’s tough to pick one favourite fade this week but I shall pick Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I think he’ll use takedowns to acquire the choice win here. So, you would think that seems great on DraftKings since wrestling stands up things. But, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and that he ends up with only 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much finishing ability and that I don’t see him getting a submission. But I believe we will see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory just as we have seen from him in the past. Hein has 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game titles for those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That is why he’s my fade of the week.
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